Aussie Cycle Trader - Monthly Newsletter for November 2022
This month we decide to accept the reality of a weak AUD and look at what the updated analysis means for our cycles. We also discuss the ASX200 Index - is it officially a bull market yet?
11 November 2022
Welcome to the November edition. I hope you are getting some good insights from the analysis so far. As I’m reflecting on the last few months, I can’t say it’s been a great time for trading. The strategies I use revolve around trend following and trading breakouts, and like many markets around the world, the trend has been down. Studying cycles is a fascinating subject as it provides a kind of ‘leading indicator’ on when the trading weather might change. I’m forced to take stock each month as I write this newsletter, to step back and work out when a top or bottom is most likely to occur. Then to play devils advocate and ask what if I’m wrong? What then? As I papertrade markets, there are times where the cycles just click. The right trades are obvious. We’re not in one of those times right now, but good traders persist, keep showing up and can therefore do well when their time comes. Enjoy the November edition and may your trading weather be favourable in times ahead.
Happy trading,
Jonathan R.
Disclaimer:
All information provided is based on analysis of the markets using publicly available information and data. It is provided for your own review and study with no consideration of your personal circumstances. Trading markets always involves risk. No guarantees are made. You are solely responsible for any transactions you initiate in the market.
Review of the AUDUSD currency pair for November 2022
The AUDUSD saw more bearish action shortly after our last newsletter. As both the US and Australia struggle to contain inflation and have successively raised interest rates, the market has been keeping a close eye on each CPI announcement, interest rate announcement any other related data out there. Uncertainty and fear tend to bias investors to the safer 'Global Reserve Currency' (USD), and away from more opportunistic AUD.
The price fell from its close at $0.6375 quickly down about 220 points to the October 14 low of $0.6157, just two days after our October 12 critical reversal date.
But it hasn't been all doom and gloom. At the time of writing, the low has held, and the market has pushed back up to the $0.65 level.
Let's now examine the cycles to see what price and time are telling us about where the AUDUSD is headed.