Aussie Cycle Trader - Monthly Newsletter for October 2022
This month we attempt to resolve the 23 month Cycle problem on the AUDUSD. Meanwhile will the Double Bottom on the ASX200 hold?
11 October 2022
The Aussie Cycle Trader Newsletter provides market insight into the AUDUSD currency pair, and the ASX200 with potential other Aussie based markets to be added to future editions. The techniques utilised include:
Technical Analysis - Chart patterns in both price and time
Time studies incorporating Cycle Analysis and Geocosmic Analysis
The techniques described above have been learned from various market traders, with the cycle and geocosmic analysis based on methods described in the works of Ray Merriman from www.mmacycles.com. All of the techniques to calculate geocosmic dates and cycle dates have come from his books and have been applied in my own historical studies of markets.
Happy trading,
Jonathan R.
Disclaimer:
All information provided is based on analysis of the markets using publicly available information and data. It is provided for your own review and study with no consideration of your personal circumstances. Trading markets always involves risk. No guarantees are made. You are solely responsible for any transactions you initiate in the market.
Review of the AUDUSD currency pair for October
'Our currency, your problem': The dollar's surge to 20-year highs is causing headaches around the world, a Goldman FX chief says - Markets Insider, MSN.
Well it certainly has become our problem! For several months we've been trying to pick the 23 month cycle bottom, only to see it taken out over and over again. It seems that everyone wants US dollars right now. Since Covid, I don't particularly like the word 'unprecedented' but it's an accurate description of our intermediate cycles.
With the array of geocosmic aspects over the last month, particularly Saturn-Uranus waxing square, and the Sun-Jupiter opposition at it's midpoint, along with Uranus and Mercury retrogrades, picking direction has been difficult. The downtrending market has taken out several support levels, and while we saw pauses at our 15th September and 29th September Critical Reversal dates, they didn't last long before dropping to new lows.
When it comes to the cycles, we have some dilemma's for our analysis. We could be in the early parts of a new 23 month cycle, and it is bearish. This would mean we'll see new lows in the next year or two. The Saturn-Uranus waxing square usually marks the crests or troughs of the 6.8 year cycle. If this holds true, then the top is in, just 11 months into a first phase 6.8 year cycle, coming out of the 17 year cycle. Given first phases of 17 year cycles are always bullish, such a short rally is... Unprecedented.
If we take a bullish stance, then the market will reverse sharply at any stage. The low formed will be an expanded 23 month low. The problem is that we are at month 31. 1 month beyond the longest ever expansion of this cycle since 1972, and 3 months beyond the 2nd longest. Also Unprecedented.
Listening to Ray Merriman and others in the MMA community, there is some discussion about how the cycles are not working well for the EUR/USD coming out of Covid. Some suspect that the phasing of the long term cycles has changed, affecting the shorter term waves. I don't think there's anything like that happening in the AUD/USD pair, but we need to be open to the possibility.
With all this said, let's now review AUD/USD and see what the months ahead might hold.